Evaluation of the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters using climatic models and Mann – Kendall test (case study: Urmia Lake) – JBES

image-20160314-11267-w4g81tSomayeh Mahmoodi Khaneshan, Zabihollah Khani Temeliyeh, Hossein Rezaie

Graduated Master of Water Resources Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

Graduated Master of Water Resources Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

students (Candidate) in Water Resources Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

Key words: Climate change, Urmia, Mann-Kendall, ANN, SDSM.

Abstract

Climate change and increase of global temperature are important environmental issues on which various studies have been conducted in recent years. This issue has a high importance due to environmental, economic and social impacts because, human activities are based on climate stability. In this article, effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters of Urmia Lake watershed have been investigated and forecasted for period 2010-2100. In order to forecast meteorological parameters, Atmosphere General Circulation Model was used. Temperature, precipitation and evaporation data were downscaled and calibrated using LARS software by SDSM model and observed data. takht-e-soleiman-1In continue, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used to simulate model of precipitation to runoff. The models outputs mostly showed increase of temperature and evaporation and decrease of precipitation in future periods. Also, the results of Mann-Kendall indicated that, climate change and global warming is not significant on long-term trend of hydrological factors affecting Urmia Lake. Therefore, the factors of rapid reduction of the lake water level in recent years should be explored among climatic fluctuations such as wet and drought, and human factors such as dam constructing, uncontrolled extraction of groundwater and unsuitable irrigation methods.

jbes-vol4no4-p112-124Get the original articles in Source: Volume 4, Number 4, April 2014 – JBES

Journal Name: Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences (JBES)

Published By: International Network for Natural Sciences

Related Post: Assessment of abomasal nematodes in adult sheeps in Abattoir of Baneh Iran – JBES

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